:: Volume 23, Issue 83 (10-2023) ::
جغرافیایی 2023, 23(83): 210-223 Back to browse issues page
Modeling and Predicting Land Use Changes by Combining Vegetation Indices and Scenarios Based on the Markov Chain Model in the Protected Peripheral Areas
Yousef Darvishi * 1, Omid Hosseini2 , Zeinab Razaghi3
1- Payam Noor university
2- University of sistan &bluchestan
3- University of Shahid Beheshti
Abstract:   (3417 Views)
Introduction
Over time, land cover patterns and consequently land use change fundamentally. In order to make the best use of natural resource capabilities, it is essential to obtain accurate information about land use potentials. Kojoor region was registered as one of the most valuable regions of the country in terms of gene and species diversity in the list of the network of protected areas in the world by the approval of the High Council of Environment in 1967.Therefore, in order to protect this area, not only proper knowledge of human factors, but also the role of natural factors such as vegetation is very important.
Data and methodology
 In the present study, Landsat satellite images were used in 7 time periods. EVI, DVI and NDVI indices were used to study and analyze vegetation changes in the study area.
In the present study, based on the modeling objectives, the study of changes in forest cover in the study area has been performed using Landsat satellite images (4, 5 and 8) for the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015 and 2017.
The false color images of the OLI sensor used were referred to the panchromatic band with 20 ground control points and observing the appropriate RMSe (0.28) of the ground. Then the images of MSS and TM sensors were referenced by image-to-image method with RMSe less than 0.5 ground. In this regard, the transfer potential modeling was performed with a learning procedure algorithm based on Multilayer Perceptron and prediction of changes for the best model was performed using Markov chain. Then it was used to evaluate the accuracy of modeling with Hit, Misses and False alarm statistics.
Discussion and conclusion
The results of the study of vegetation indices showed an improvement in the condition of cover in the study period. The results of the study of vegetation indices showed an improvement in the condition of cover in the study period. The study of land use also showed that with the current trend, the area of ​​uncovered land will be reduced and the area of ​​rangeland and forest cover will be increased. Therefore, the improvement of the coating conditions can be attributed to the application of protective operations.
Article number: 9
Keywords: Vegetation Indices, Modeling, Land use, Markov Chain.
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Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2021/11/21 | Accepted: 2022/06/5 | Published: 2024/01/1


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Volume 23, Issue 83 (10-2023) Back to browse issues page