|
Management and risk assessment of flash floods in urban and rural areas under climate change conditions (A case study: Mehran River, Tabriz)
|
Ahmad Reza Mohageg1   , Ebrahim Salami2 |
1- Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2- Payam-e Noor University Tabriz Branch |
|
|
Abstract: (148 Views) |
Climate change is having a significant impact on natural phenomena such as floods. The effective management and risk assessment of floods, as well as the organization of river systems, are essential in reducing the risks to human life and property damage caused by flooding.This study assesses the 3.5 and 7-year moving average graphs and finds that precipitation has gradually entered a triennial period. It is expected that the precipitation in the Mehran River basin and its flow rate will increase. The Ambrageh climate map shows that Tabriz was located in a semi-arid and cold area 20 years ago, but now it is located in a dry and cold area. It is expected that the flood flow will increase due to these changes. Monthly flow rates for the next 10 years were predicted using the time series model (2,0,2) (1,1,1) ARIMA. The HEC-HMS software was used to estimate the flow rate for different return periods under two scenarios: a) estimating the flow rate based on available data and b) estimating the flow rate based on available and predicted data. The flow rate showed a 5.24% increase in the 200-year return period under the second scenario. Furthermore, hydraulic modeling of the Mehran River using the HEC-RAS software indicated that the width of the 200-year flood in climate change conditions would be 10% higher than current conditions. Additionally, the water level would increase by 11% under these conditions. The study employed the SAW multi-criteria decision-making method to combine structural and biological methods in managing flood risks and reducing the damage to human life and property. The Mehran River was selected as the focus for implementing these methods based on modeling results, field visits, and review of reputable publications and articles.
|
|
| Keywords: flood zoning, climate change, flood risk assessment, HEC- Geo Ras Model, SAW |
|
|
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2023/04/24 | Accepted: 2024/12/10
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
