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جغرافیایی 2019, 19(65): 37-56 Back to browse issues page
Predicted trends in land use city Behbahan years 2014 to 2028 Using LCM model
Fatemeh Mohammadyary1, Hamidreza Purkhabbaz *1, Hossin Aghdar2, Morteza Tavakoly3
1- Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology
2- aghdarhossain@yahoo.com
3- Associ profe of Geography Tarbiat Modares University of Technology
Abstract:   (3415 Views)

Change detection and prediction of land cover change in the overall vision for better management of natural resources, protection of agricultural land around urban areas is very effective long-term policies and strategies. one of the methods used to control the process of changes in land cover and land use planners, is modeling. The land use maps 2000 and 2014 BEHBAHAN city was prepared using maximum likelihood classification. It also uses a Markov chain and logistic regression was 2028 land use map. Mapping modeled after the detection of changes in land use map was made in 2014 and 2028 with the LCM. Assess the accuracy, land use maps in 2000 and 2014 to evaluate the accuracy Kappa coefficient and logistic regression with (ROC) Relative Operating Characteristic was calculated. The results of modeling with logistic regression model showed that in all sub model ROC statistic is more than 94/0 These results show a very good offer logistic regression model in the analysis of changes in land use change modeling The results showed the sharpest decline mainly include changes is destruction of rangelands and convert it to other land uses. The highest increase was seen in the area of agricultural land use. Rangeland degradation process can be alarming for managers and urban planners and natural resources. To prevent the decline of rangeland degradation, the need to provide appropriate and efficient management solutions in the fields of grazing and rangeland restoration and improvement programs.                                             

Keywords: Markov chain, Detecting changes, LCM, Modeling, Logistic Regression
Full-Text [PDF 1205 kb]   (814 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2015/04/20 | Accepted: 2016/04/2 | Published: 2019/06/15
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mohammadyary F, purkhabbaz H, aghdar H, Tavakoly M. Predicted trends in land use city Behbahan years 2014 to 2028 Using LCM model . جغرافیایی 2019; 19 (65) :37-56
URL: http://geographical-space.iau-ahar.ac.ir/article-1-1627-en.html

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