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Assessment of climate change in the two periods 2046-2046 and 2080-2099 Babolrood watershed using an atmospheric general circulation model data HadCM3
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Abstract: (5276 Views) |
| In recent years, different climatic events such as floods and drought in the Babul-rod watershed and province of Mazandaran emphasis have been the need to investigate further the impact of climate change on hydrologic and meteorological watershed factors such as precipitation and temperature. Implement this action the using general circulation models of the atmosphere. Due to of large scale computational grid for general circulation models of the atmosphere, they are able to forecast weather and meteorological parameters do not point scale, based on the interface tool called WG developed by and help out Numerical models can scale climate change point and the desired station evaluated. In this study, using this method, the data model HadCM3 general circulation of the atmosphere with the use of LARS-WG A2 and B1 for the time periods 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 were downscaled of LARS-WG also introduced four climatic variables temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and sunshine hours related to the statistical base period 1982-2011 was about calibration and verification and assurance of the ability of the model was used to simulate future periods. The results of the assessment of climate change indicate changes in precipitation in the watershed basin Babul-rod from -43 to +32 percent, and changes of range mid was increase of precipitation in the months of high rainfall and decrease of rainfall in the low rainfall month during the summer. Also, the average annual temperature is about 1.4 °C to 3.6 °C, especially in the warmer months of the year that causes on decreases of snowfall (solid precipitation) and change of precipitation regime is more. Increased rainfall in the months of cold and warm temperatures rise during in warm month that subsequent the causes early in the snow mass and increase runoff will bring, impact on regional climate in the near future, likely the number and intensity of extreme events will increase greatly. |
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| Keywords: Flood, Drought, Climate scenarios, Weather Generator, downscaled, extreme events |
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Full-Text [PDF 1624 kb]
(1820 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2015/08/24 | Accepted: 2015/10/21 | Published: 2017/09/20
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