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Prediction and simulation of temperature changes in Birjand synoptic station by using SDSM Model in the 2020-2100 period
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Mohammad Akbari *   1, Mohammad Salegieh |
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Abstract: (91 Views) |
The purpose of this research is to temperature simulate in the Birjand synoptic station using SDSM Model. Observation data includes the maximum, minimum and daily average of the temperature in time (1981-2005). It is used from NCEP data and CanESM2 output under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for statistical downscaling in the projected (2020-2100) periods. The simulation results of the average temperature change at the Birjand station indicate an incremental trend of this parameter in the range of 2020-2100. The highest increase will occur in the period 2020-2039 and in the RCP4.5 scenario. Also, the results of this simulation indicate an increase in the mean minimum temperature in time intervals (2020-2020, 2059-2040 and 2079-2060), and the highest increase in minimum temperature in RCP4.5 scenario will occur. The study of the average temperature for all studied periods shows that in all three scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5), the average temperature increase gradually began in January, reaching its highest level in August. The most important thing is to increase the average temperature in winter. Because the average temperature in the initial period (2020-2039) and the end period (2080-2099) indicates an increase of 1.68 degrees Celsius, the average winter temperature will be in the coming periods. The general results of the simulation of the three parameters of the temperature of the station in Birjand during the statistical period (2020-2100) indicate an increase in temperature along with an incidence from the base period (1981-86). In other words, the temperature values in the study area will increase in the future.
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| Keywords: Climate Change, temperature simulation, Birjand, SDSM, CanESM2 |
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Full-Text [PDF 1101 kb]
(44 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2023/03/5 | Accepted: 2023/08/24 | Published: 2025/01/9
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