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:: Volume 12, Issue 38 (4-2012) ::
جغرافیایی 2012, 12(38): 127-144 Back to browse issues page
A study and prediction of annuel temperature in shiraz using ARIMA model
Abstract:   (9540 Views)
Temperature is one of the most predominant elements having remarkable effects on determining the role and dispersion of other elements.It is also a fundamental indicator of spread and climatic classification. Planning based on temperature trend can be used in various bio-environmental issues such as urban, rural and agricultural systems. In this study, spectral analysis technique and ARIMA model were used in a 55-year time period (1955-2005) to reveal the dominant cycles and temperature modeling in Shiraz respectively. The results show that the cycles of 2.5 and 4 years are predominant on temperature in Shiraz. With modeling the temperature in ARIMA models, ARIMA (1-1-3) was selected as the optimal model. The model predicted 0.20 C˚ increase in annual temperature in Shiraz.
Keywords: ARIMA model, Annual temperature, Spectral analysis, Shiraz
Full-Text [PDF 387 kb]   (1805 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2014/05/6 | Accepted: 2014/05/6 | Published: 2014/05/6
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A study and prediction of annuel temperature in shiraz using ARIMA model. جغرافیایی 2012; 12 (38) :127-144
URL: http://geographical-space.iau-ahar.ac.ir/article-1-897-en.html


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Volume 12, Issue 38 (4-2012) Back to browse issues page
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