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An Analysis of the Continuity of Windy Days by Using Markov Chain Model in Zahedan
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Abstract: (6368 Views) |
| The purpose of this study is to analyze the continuity of windy days based on Markov chain in Zahedan. In order to identify the windy days, horizontal visibility and daily wind speed data during 1983 - 2011 were obtained from meteorological station in Zahedan. It is called a windy day if the maximum wind speed exceeds 15 meters per second and horizontal visibility is less than 1000 m. Based on Markov model, the matrices of the frequency of windy days observed were constructed and the matrices of the probabilities of transition for months and seasons were calculated.In the next step, the correlation of windy days on each to other, with the durability and homogeneity, was tested. Moreover, the expected frequency of windy days, th e period of windy and non-windy days, and the sequence of the windy n-days for each month were calculated. The observed data showed that 2007 had the highest frequency windy days (78 windy days) and, in contrast, the years 2000 and 1993 had the lowest windy days (4 days). In the seasonal study of the frequency of windy days, it was found out that the maximum windy days occurred in winter (306 days) and the minimum in autumn (57 days). Moreover, March with 123 and November with 8 windy days had the highest and the lowest windy days. An alysis of windy periods of one to seven windy days showed that the maximum Persistence of windy days, occurrd in the late winter and early spring and the minimum was in mid-fall. The maximum wind speed occurred in the spring of 2002 (40 meters per second). The average of the windy days was 24.4 days, with a standard deviation of 19.3 days. |
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| Keywords: Zahedan, Windy days, Markov chain model. |
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Full-Text [PDF 1293 kb]
(976 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2014/03/10 | Accepted: 2015/05/10 | Published: 2017/09/20
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