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:: Volume 16, Number 56 (3-2017) ::
2017, 16(56): 95-113 Back to browse issues page
LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF THE CLIMATE VARIABLES IN NORTHERN SHORE OF IRAN ON UNCERTAINTY OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
hossain mohammadi1, ghasem azizi2, fatemeh rabbani *3
1- professor
2- Assistant Professor
3- phd student
Abstract:   (999 Views)

In the near future climatic change can lead to different negative results on various systems including water, agriculture, environment, healthcare, industry and economy. The study purpose is to evaluate the future climate conditions in the northern shore of Iran. We used collection of long- term daily data of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature and sunshine for 10 synoptic stations and monthly rainfall and temperature of coupled ocean- atmosphere models data In this study. First, the uncertainty and operation of the global climate models are evaluated for baseline period (1971-2000) and then stochastic weather generator model is validated and analyzed using statistical tests like K-S, T and F. The future data for 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 are generated for each station base on the Mpeh and Ncccsm models under three scenarios of SRA1B, SRA2 and SRB1. The prediction results showed that trend of temperature will be ascending and the minimum temperature will increase more than maximum temperature. In the first study course, maximum of increasing of temperature will be in September, October and November (autumn season) and in the second study course will be in July, august and September (summer season). Also, seasonal and monthly study of rainfall in both the models showed that the autumn and winter rainfall will increase and the maximum rainfall will occur in november in the Caspian Sea area. Summer rainfall about 13% and Spring rainfall about 5 % will decrease in comparison to the normal level.

Keywords: Climate Change, Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere Models, Stochastic Weather Generator model, Caspian Sea Area.
Full-Text [PDF 1014 kb]   (4 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2014/09/27 | Accepted: 2015/03/14 | Published: 2017/02/26
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mohammadi H, azizi G, rabbani F. LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF THE CLIMATE VARIABLES IN NORTHERN SHORE OF IRAN ON UNCERTAINTY OF GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS . Geographical Space. 2017; 16 (56) :95-113
URL: http://geographical-space.iau-ahar.ac.ir/article-1-1132-en.html
Volume 16, Number 56 (3-2017) Back to browse issues page
فضای جغرافیایی Geographic Space
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