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Forecasting the temporal changes of meteorological drought in Lorestan province using climate models
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Mostafa Karampoor   , Samira Beyranvand , Massoud Goodarzi , Azar Beyranvand * 1 |
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Abstract: (49 Views) |
The occurrence of climatic extremes such as heat waves, heavy rains and droughts cause significant damage to human societies. Analyzing the change in the frequency of these phenomena and examining the trend and intensity of the observed events and the predicted events can help significantly in planning to manage and adapt to these events. In the current research, the effects of climate change on the drought situation of Lorestan province have been evaluated using the Standardized Precipitation Drought Index (SPI) and then the trend of this index was investigated. Since the computational grids of the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) must be downscaling in the dimensions of one station due to their large scale and low resolution for use, so at first the daily output data of the atmospheric general circulation model HADCM3 under the release scenario A2 and B1, downscaling by the LARS-WG version 5 statistical model and the ability of the LARS-WG5 model in simulating the past climate (1996-2011) in the synoptic stations of Aliguderz, Khorramabad and Borujerd has been verified, then the precipitation gauge for The period 2011-2050 has been simulated for the studied stations. The results obtained from the study of the drought trend indicate the intensification of droughts in the winter season during the coming decades in Aliguderz and Borujerd stations and the weakening of droughts in Khorramabad station. The spring season shows a weakening of the drought in all three studied stations except the INCM3 model, where Aliguderz and Khorramabad stations have significant trends under the HADCM3 model under scenario A2 and the INCM3 model under scenario A2 and B1, respectively. In order to adapt the agricultural sector to these changes, an adaptive capacity strategy should be adopted in the agricultural management and planning department of this province to plan the time and type of cultivation by considering these changes. Also, take action in the direction of better productivity.
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| Keywords: Climate change, precipitation, prediction of climate parameters, LORESTAN, Downscaling. |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2023/06/8 | Accepted: 2023/11/9
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